Schaeffer's Daily Option Blog

Visa Draws Call Players Ahead of Earnings

V received a price-target hike ahead of this evening's earnings report

by Terri Stridsberg 2/8/2012 3:03 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Credit card behemoth Visa Inc. (V - 107.86) is scheduled to unveil its fiscal first-quarter earnings after the closing bell, and has surpassed analysts' bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters. This may have sparked an uptick in bullish options activity on the stock today, as approximately 18,000 calls have crossed the tape so far, doubling the equity's expected intraday volume.

The favorite among traders has been the out-of-the-money March 110 strike, where more than 6,500 calls have changed hands. However, the majority of them crossed between the ask and bid prices, making it hard to discern whether they were bought or sold. Also, this strike is currently home to peak call open interest of 6,895 contracts, so it cannot be assumed that new positions are being initiated at this strike.

Examining V's technical performance, the equity is up around 6% so far this year, and has outperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by close to 6% during the past 60 sessions. On the charts, the stock has been guided steadily higher by double-barreled support at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages since early April.

It also bears mentioning that Stifel Nicolaus raised its price target for V to $125 from $109 this morning. At last check, the equity is up about 0.8% and is trading at $107.86.


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Salesforce.com Sees an Upswing in March Call Volume

However, one front-month trader employed calls to bet bearishly on CRM

by Terri Stridsberg 2/8/2012 2:29 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Investors have taken a shine to Salesforce.com (CRM - 122.80) calls today, as roughly 25,000 of these options have changed hands so far, which is four times above the norm. Nearly 8,000 calls have been traded at the out-of-the-money March 125 strike -- most of them between the ask and bid prices, making it unclear as to whether they're being bought or sold. This option currently holds open interest of just 3,735 contracts, signaling an influx of new positions.

Meanwhile, a block of 5,292 calls was sold at the February 120 strike, while an equal number of calls were bought at the February 135 strike. This suggests that one trader has constructed a bear call spread on CRM. Essentially, the best-case scenario is for the stock to finish at or below $120 by the time front-month options expire -- rendering both options worthless, and enabling him to pocket the maximum profit of $4.29 (net credit received). On the other hand, his potential risk is limited to $10.71, or the difference between the strike prices minus the net credit.

However, calls have been the options of choice for CRM prior to today's session. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) checks in at 0.74, indicating that calls comfortably outnumber puts among options set to expire within three months. In fact, this ratio sits just six percentage points above an annual nadir, confirming that near-term options players have rarely been more bullishly aligned toward the stock over the past year.

Meanwhile, short interest on the software security climbed by 4.06% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for a lofty 11.47% of CRM's float. This implies that short sellers looking to hedge their bearish bets may be responsible for some of the recent call volume.

From a technical standpoint, CRM has added almost 21% year-to-date, and has outpaced the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 12% during the past 20 sessions. On the charts, the stock appears to be testing resistance at its 32-week moving average, a trendline it has not surmounted since late October.

In the afternoon hours of the session, CRM remains nearly flat with yesterday's close of $122.80.


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Pre-Earnings Call Sellers Converge on CBOE Holdings

Ahead of earnings, CBOE is slapped with a price-target cut and downgrade

by Terri Stridsberg 2/8/2012 1:11 PM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Ahead of tomorrow's turn in the earnings confessional, CBOE Holdings, Inc. (CBOE - 26.01) received a price-target cut to $21 from $27 -- as well as a downgrade to "underperform" from "market perform" -- at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods early this morning. However, call players appear to have shrugged off the analyst attention, as well as the company's plans to merge two major divisions. Nearly 4,100 of these options have crossed the tape so far, reflecting four times the equity's expected intraday volume. Most popular among investors is the at-the-money February 26 strike, where at least 3,279 calls have been traded -- about three-quarters of them at the bid price, pointing to seller-fueled volume. Currently, this option is home to peak call open interest of 8,249 contracts, so it's difficult to say with certainty whether new positions are being opened here today.

Either way, this preference for CBOE calls over puts is par for the course. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 0.26, confirming that calls nearly quadruple puts among options expiring within three months. In fact, this ratio ranks in only the 14th percentile of its annual range, which means that near-term options players have been more call-heavy toward the stock just 14% of the time over the past year.

Furthermore, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) reveals a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.29 for the exchange operator. In other words, calls bought to open have more than quadrupled puts during the past couple of weeks. This ratio registers in the 63rd annual percentile, indicating that traders have been buying bullish options over bearish at an accelerated clip.

However, short interest on CBOE shot up by 23.07% during the most recent reporting period, suggesting that some of the recent call volume could be attributed to short sellers looking to hedge their bets. Still, the equity's bearish camp is far from crowded, as these shorted shares make up a modest 2.28% of the stock's float.

On the technical front, CBOE has underperformed the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by more than 8% during the past 60 sessions. Even so, a look at the charts shows that the stock is still on pace to close a second consecutive week atop its 10-week moving average, which had served as a ceiling over the equity since mid-December.

It should also be noted that CBOE is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings before tomorrow's opening bell, and has bested analysts' consensus bottom-line estimates in all of the past four quarters. At last check, however, CBOE is down about 2.7% to hover in the $26.01 area.


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Post-Earnings Call Buying Ramps Up on SolarWinds

SWI call volume soars after a stronger-than-expected earnings report

by Terri Stridsberg 2/8/2012 11:56 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

SolarWinds (SWI - 36.47) reported an adjusted, fourth-quarter profit of 29 cents on revenue of $55.6 million before Tuesday's opening bell -- toppling analysts' estimates, and sending the shares to a record high. This upbeat news likely sparked yesterday's flurry of call activity on the tech concern, as roughly 10,000 of these options were exchanged, which was more than triple the equity's average daily volume. Close to 2,800 calls were traded at the out-of-the-money February 37.50 strike -- over half of them at the ask price, suggesting they were bought. Meanwhile, open interest on this option rose by 1,208 overnight, pointing to an influx of new positions. This call is now home to open interest of 2,846 contracts. By purchasing these calls to open, speculators are expecting SWI to rally north of the $37.50 mark by front-month expiration.

This upswing in call volume is part of an ongoing trend for SWI. The Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) rests at 0.61, confirming that calls nearly double puts among options set to expire within three months. This ratio ranks in only the 35th percentile of its annual range, which means that short-term options players have been more bullishly aligned toward the stock just 35% of the time over the past 12 months.

What's more, SWI's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio sits at 7.32, indicating that calls bought to open have outnumbered puts by more than seven to one during the last two weeks. This ratio registers in the 84th annual percentile, signaling that traders have been purchasing bullish options over bearish at a faster-than-usual clip.

However, it should be noted that short interest on SWI increased by 8.19% during the most recent reporting period, and now accounts for a healthy 8.79% of the equity's float. This raises the possibility that some of the recent call activity is the work of short sellers looking to hedge their bearish bets.

Technically speaking, SWI has gained more than 30% year-to-date, and has bested the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 17.5% during the past 20 sessions. On the charts, the stock continues to be ushered higher by its 10-day moving average, which has acted as support for more than a month. In fact, as alluded to earlier, SWI tagged an all-time high of $37.37 during yesterday's session.

At last check, the stock is up 0.3% and is trading at $36.47.


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Spread Strategist Expects a Short-Term Breather for UPS

Examining a short straddle on uptrending UPS

by Andrea Kramer 2/8/2012 11:14 AM
Stocks quoted in this article:

Delivery concern United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS - 76.95) has tacked on roughly 5.6% since the start of the year, tagging a new multi-year high of $77.55 just yesterday. However, judging by recent options activity, it looks like one strategist is expecting the shares to take a breather over the next several weeks.

In the wake of Tuesday's session, the March 75 strike saw call and put open interest increase by 4,633 contracts and 3,548 contracts, respectively. Digging deeper, we find that most of the action traded in one fell swoop, with symmetrical blocks of 2,550 calls and puts exchanged. Plus, the blocks changed hands at the bid price -- the calls for $2.54, and the puts for 79 cents -- suggesting they were sold. In other words, the strategist constructed a short straddle on UPS for a net credit of $3.33 per pair of contracts.

By selling calls and puts at the same strike, the trader is expecting UPS to remain in the $75 neighborhood through options expiration. In fact, as long as the stock finishes between the $71.67 level (strike minus net credit) and the $78.33 level (strike plus net credit), the investor will retain at least some of the initial premium received. However, should UPS extend its recent rally, the trader's losses are theoretically unlimited on the upside, and significant on the downside.

From a broader sentiment standpoint, most options traders are bullishly biased toward UPS. The stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits at 4.83 -- in the 92nd percentile of its annual range. Or, simply put, options buyers have initiated bullish bets over bearish at a faster-than-usual pace during the past two weeks.

At last look, UPS has surrendered 0.4% to explore the $76.95 vicinity. From a longer-term perspective, the equity's Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a lofty 67 -- on the cusp of overbought territory, suggesting a short-term pullback could, in fact, be in the cards.


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Featured Brokers

Bank of America Corporation New (BAC) $8.13 +3.57%

2/8/2012 4:20:02 PM
Hefty prints in BofA (BAC) late. Shares are up 29 cents to $8.12 and continuing the 2012 surge. In late day options action, 128,000 April 7 calls traded on the $1.38 bid on PHLX and possibly part of an overwriting play with in-the-money calls, or possibly closing, as it looks tied to 10 million shares for $8.14 and open interest in sufficient to cover. Our systems picked up a 100,000-contract buyer of April 7 calls for 23 cents per contract in early-Jan (see 1/4 color) and so today's flow might offset that big trade after the 41.3 percent rally in shares.

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Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) $20.27 +0.35%

2/8/2012 3:20:03 PM
133 stocks will release earnings before tomorrow's open, with Cisco and Pepsi leading the volume (try @earnings in Flow Monitor). For the group, calls outnumber puts nearly 2:1 and CSCO flow is triple the average time-weighted volume, on track for nearly 450,000 contracts today. Top 5 most actives in Cisco are calls, with Feb 21s leading the list with nearly 37K trading and a vwap of 28cents. ISE data shows a mix of opening and closing customer buyers behind the volume there.

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E Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC) $9.20 +1.10%

2/8/2012 1:20:03 PM
Etrade Financial (ETFC) adds a dime to $9.20 and a 10000-contract block of Jan14 $10 call trades on the broker at the $2.10 asking price. Looks opening and tied to 600K shares for $9.17. A Dow Jones article today mentioned ETFC in a piece titled TD Ameritrade Still Eyes Possible Deals, but noted that Amertrade said last year it wasn't interested in a deal with the online broker and Etrade said it wasn't for sale. Still, today's hefty 2014 call buyer seems to be bracing for a sizeable move in Etrade shaes in the months/years ahead, even as shares have been drifting somewhat aimlessly for months now.

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Diamond Foods Inc (DMND) $37.38 -1.11%

2/7/2012 3:20:03 PM
Diamond Foods (DMND) loses 49 cents to $37.31 and it appears that one or more investors has been building a position in Feb 30 - 35 put spreads on the snack food company today. The top trade is 3,021 Feb 30 - 35 put spreads for $1.65 on NYSE-Arca and apparently an opening trade. The spread has traded several more times on ISE, where data indicate a buyer is indeed opening a position. More than 6000 traded so far. Separately, it looks like Feb 45 - 50 call spreads are being bought on DMND for about 60 cents, 1000X. Players are taking positions in short-term options on DMND, possibly a play on earnings. However, while some sources have Feb 9 as an earnings release date, that has not yet been confirmed and it is more likely that results will be reported next week or possibly after the Feb expiration. The heightened activity might instead be related to a federal probe into the company's accounting of how much it paid walnut producers. The company expects conclusion to the investigation some time in mid-Feb.

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Yahoo Inc (YHOO) $15.80 -0.13%

2/7/2012 1:20:01 PM
Yahoo (YHOO) loses a penny to $15.81 and one strategist sells 10,000 Jan 12.5 puts on the Internet giant at 89 cents and 17,500 Jan 20 calls at 57 cents -- possibly exiting a trade and/or betting that the stock will stay between $12.5 and 20 through the Jan 2013 expiration. Why not. YHOO has been trading sideways in a narrow range for months and is basically at the same levels today as it was 2 years ago. Separately, it appears Jun 16 - 19 calls spreads are being sold on Yahoo at $1, 9750X on AMEX. It's possibly closing or a position adjustment. Meanwhile, implied vols in YHOO have eased 1.5 percent to 26 Tuesday and are not far from the 52-week lows of 25.9 set Friday.

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Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) $49.56 +0.79%

2/7/2012 12:20:03 PM
Barrick Gold (ABX) edges 17 cents higher to $49.34 after gold rebounded from recent losses and is trading up $11 to $17.36 an ounce. Options action in the gold miner today includes a 4150-lot of Feb 50 calls for 57 cents at around 10:00 when the market was 53 to 55 cents. Thirty minutes later, after shares had lifted about 40 cents to $49.09, a multi-exchange sweep of 1,483 contracts traded for 73 cents. Data indicate customers are buying to open Feb 50 calls on ABX. More than 10,000 now traded and the market is 87 to 89 cents. Feb 49, Weekly 49, and Weekly 50 calls are seeing interest as well and levels of implied volatility in ABX options are up 3 percent to 31. Bullish trading comes ahead of a Feb 16 earnings report, which is the Thursday before options-expeiration Friday (but after the 2/10 weekly expiry).

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Yahoo Inc (YHOO) $15.79 -0.85%

2/6/2012 4:20:02 PM
Yahoo for the trader who just put up a cool 270,000 contract trade on the PHLX on an otherwise low volume Monday with the broad averages near flat and vix up .79 to 17.89. On the PHLX the initiator paid 13c for 30K April 19calls and 1.38 for 70K July 16 calls and 10c for 40K July 22calls versus a sale of 130K July 18c for 56cents. Appears to adjust a large July 16-19 1x2 callspd that traded on jan 4th (see 1/4/2012 color).

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Vulcan Materials (VMC) $44.91 +0.27%

2/6/2012 1:20:01 PM
Vulcan Materials (VMC) is up 4 cents to $44.83 and early options trades on the stock include a multi-exchange sweep of 1,063 Feb 45 puts for $1.80 per contract. 3,070 now traded against 106 in open interest. Data from the ISE indicate opening buyers and implied volatility in the options on VMC is up 21 percent to 41. Some investors might be hedging their bets ahead of a Feb 15 earnings report. The stock has surged 33.8 percent since Martin Marietta made an all stock hostile bid for the maker of sand, gravel, and other construction-related materials. VMC has thus far rejected the offer. Martin Marietta might shed light on its future plans when the company reports earnings tomorrow.

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Dryships Inc (DRYS) $2.59 +7.69%

2/6/2012 12:20:02 PM
Dryships (DRYS) sees a second day of increasing volume. Shares are up 20 cents to $2.63 on volume approaching 14 million. Typical volume in the first two hours is about 2 million shares. Meanwhile, options activity is running 3.5X the daily average. 21,000 calls and 1,245 puts traded on the stock. Today's flow seems to include buyers and sellers. Feb 2.5 calls, which are now 13 cents in-the-money and expiring in 11 days, are the most actives. The top trade is a 411-lot on the 15-cent bid and is possibly a liquidating trade. Mar 2.5, Feb 3, Mar 3, and Jan 2.5 calls are the next most actives and levels of implied volatility are moving up 1.5 percent to 84. DRYS saw a pop late Friday on increasing volume as well (see 2/3 color). The gains in the stock and high volume are possibly related to news today that the company's Oil Drill UDW unit struck a drilling contract with Norweigan Continental Shelf, which will add about $653 million in revenues to the backlog.

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CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) $17.24 -4.12%

2/3/2012 3:20:05 PM
CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) fell to multi-month lows of 16.1 Friday morning and was recently down .77 points to 17.10. Trading in the VIX pit is very busy today and included some sizable blocks. One noteworthy trade is a Feb 26 - Mar 35 call spread, apparently bought for 29 cents, 40000X, and might close a positoin opened a couple of weeks ago when the same diagonal spread was sold for 7.5 cents, 40000X (see 1/24 color). Separately, an investor bought 60,000 April 20 - May 26 strangles on VIX for $4.45 and seems to have opened a position in anticipaton of increased volatility in the volatility index before mid-May. A third noteworthy trade in the index today is an April 28 - 35 (1X2) call ratio spread for 20 cents, 15000X. April 28 calls were sold to buy twice as many April 35 puts -- possibly roling up in strike prices, as open interest in the April 28s is over 67K. Total volume in VIX is 390,000 calls and 177,000 puts.

Read more at WhatsTrading.com

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